Is Foley This Cycle’s “DUI?”
October 03, 2006
Courtesy of the National Journal

In the final days of the 2000 WH race, Pres Bush was confronted with an unexpected revelation from his past. It was disclosed that in 1976 Bush had been pulled over and arrested for DUI. The news threw the otherwise well-oiled Bush campaign and, as described by John F. Harris and Mark Halperin in their new book, “The Way To Win,” the “classic scramble that ensued set off a…frenzy.”

Questions about the genesis of the leak emerged almost instantly, but such curiosities were far outweighed by the damage within the story itself. For conservative-leaning voters, the DUI set off alarms about just what was in the background of the once-wild Texas governor who was still something of an unknown quantity. Five days after the bombshell broke, Bush could only eke out an electoral tie. The GOP base, the story goes, was depressed by the DUI.

Is history repeating itself?

Ex-Rep. Mark Foley’s (R) transgressions with pages have already caused revulsion across ideological lines, but it is conservatives who could again cause the most damage to Republicans.

As we’ve reported, the key to Democrats taking back the majority in the House lies in knocking off incumbents. There aren’t enough open seats in play to get to 15. Dems must win on GOP terrain. And this means Red America; culturally conservative, church-going, traditional values America.

Specifically, Democrats need to unseat Republicans in districts where Bush won 55% or more — 10 of the races in our top 30. From Rep. John Hostettler (IN 08) in Southern Indiana to Rep. Charles Taylor (NC 11) in Western North Carolina to Rep. Thelma Drake (VA 02) in Tidewater Virginia, these vulnerable Republicans are banking on a massive turnout of so-called “values voters.”

Democratic hopes are aided by a strong crop of challengers, while many of the Republicans running in these districts are among the party’s weakest incumbents (paging Mr. Sherwood). Perhaps most importantly, these Democratic challengers constantly invoke their values on the stump, in their ads, and they aren’t shy about distancing themselves from the national party on cultural issues.

That Republicans are so vulnerable in the American heartland gives them precious little margin for error in the Northeast, the region of the county where they were thought to be the most at-risk. The battleground for control of the House has moved south and west and from blue states to red. Will conservatives come home or stay home?

[JOSH KRAUSHAAR and JONATHAN MARTIN]

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